Part Two of Two:
While the first part of this article established the foundational framework for comparing housing policies, a deep dive into current statistics reveals significant differences between California and Texas approaches. Data from homebuyer assistance programs, property tax structures, inventory levels, and agent retention metrics shows how different policy frameworks create varying outcomes for residents and market stability.
Statistical Analysis: Homebuyer Assistance Programs
California’s “Dream for All” program provides a compelling case study in targeted government intervention. According to the California Housing Finance Agency’s 2024 Annual Report, Phase 2 of the program processed over 18,000 applications in just 26 days. From these applications, 2,058 vouchers were issued, with 1,349 recipients (66%) successfully reserving loans and over 1,100 borrowers ultimately closing on homes.
The program provided an average of $117,000 in down payment assistance per loan, making homeownership more achievable for middle-income families. The program’s targeted outreach improved racial equity outcomes, with 70% of 2024 voucher recipients being people of color, compared to 55% the previous year.
Current Status of California Programs:
While the Dream For All program is currently closed due to exhausted funding, California maintains several active alternatives. The CalHFA MyHome Assistance Program provides 3-3.5% in down payment or closing cost assistance through deferred-payment second loans.
The Forgivable Equity Builder Loan offers up to 10% of the purchase price, forgivable after five years of occupancy. The Golden State Finance Authority operates Platinum and Golden Opportunities programs, offering up to 5-5.5% in grants or second loans. Many cities and counties layer additional programs on top of these state options.
Texas Down Payment Assistance:
Texas maintains a different approach through various programs administered by the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs.
Programs like My First Texas Home and My Choice Texas Home provide access to affordable 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with down payment assistance.
The Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation operates Home Sweet Texas and Homes for Texas Heroes, offering up to 5% as grants or forgivable second loans for first-time and repeat buyers, including veterans and public servants.
Local programs, such as SETH 5 Star Advantage (up to 5% in grants) and San Antonio’s HIP incentive (up to $30,000 forgivable loans), provide additional options.
Property Tax Structure Comparison
The property tax frameworks of both states create different long-term financial impacts for homeowners. California operates under Proposition 13’s protections, maintaining an effective property tax rate averaging 0.75% with an annual increase cap of 1%. Texas imposes a median property tax rate of 1.67%.
For practical comparison, Texas property owners pay a median of $3,971 annually, with rates reaching 2.95% in some counties. A family purchasing a $400,000 home would face an annual tax bill exceeding $6,680 in Texas, compared to approximately $3,000 in California. Over a 30-year mortgage period, this difference amounts to over $108,000.
Market Performance Metrics
Housing market indicators show distinct patterns in both states. As of mid-2025, California’s median home price showed a modest 0.3% year-over-year decline, with an unsold inventory index of 3.7 months, indicating market balance.
Texas experienced different market dynamics, with inventory reaching 123,237 listings in April 2025—53% above historical averages and the highest level in over a decade. This inventory increase coincided with price adjustments, as Austin experienced a 20.4% decline in home values from pandemic peaks. Approximately 27.7% of all Texas listings underwent price reductions, with some markets like Midland and Dallas exceeding 34%.
Real Estate Professional Trends
The real estate workforce serves as an indicator of market confidence. California retained 95% of its licensed agents during the recent market cooling period, with first-time agent licenses increasing by 7%. Texas experienced an 8% decline in licensed agents, reflecting changing market conditions and transaction opportunities.
Affordability Considerations
Both states present different affordability challenges. In California, despite higher absolute prices, the income needed to qualify for a mid-tier home represents approximately 2.4 times the state’s median household income. In Texas, mortgage and tax payments typically consume 32.5% of household income, compared to the historical average of 23%.
Population migration patterns have shifted as well. Texas experienced a 62% decline in net domestic migration, dropping from 222,100 new residents in 2022 to 85,200 in 2024. This demographic change, combined with continued homebuilding, contributed to current inventory levels.
Market Observations and Trends
Real estate professionals have noted various migration patterns between states. Some individuals who relocated to Texas during the pandemic have expressed interest in returning to California, citing factors including housing market stability and long-term wealth preservation considerations. Notable examples include comedian Tim Dillon’s recent return to Los Angeles, while other entertainers like Brendan Schaub, Shane Gillis, and Mark Normand have made public comments about their Texas experiences.
Conclusion:
Understanding Policy Impact Through Data
The statistical comparison reveals how different policy approaches create varying outcomes in housing markets. California’s framework emphasizes stability through property tax caps and targeted assistance programs, while Texas relies more heavily on market-driven solutions with higher property tax rates to fund services.
Each approach reflects different philosophical priorities regarding government intervention, market dynamics, and long-term wealth building. For prospective homebuyers and real estate professionals, understanding these structural differences provides valuable insight into how policy frameworks influence market conditions and individual financial outcomes.
The evidence suggests that effective housing policy requires balancing market freedom with strategic interventions designed to promote stability and equity. Both states continue to evolve their approaches based on changing demographics, economic conditions, and resident needs.
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Analysis and opinion provided by Mark Bolender, a residential real estate broker in California with over 30 years of experience. This analysis represents his professional observations from comprehensive data research and market performance studies. The opinions expressed are his alone and do not represent the views of other agents, brokers, or companies.
