The political landscapes of California and Florida, shaped by Governors Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis, respectively, have forged dramatically different real estate realities. While Governor Newsom has championed bold, comprehensive reforms to ignite housing production, safeguard homeowners, and bolster business confidence, Governor DeSantis's policies have, conversely, fueled insurance crises, exacerbated workforce shortages, and cast a shadow of economic uncertainty over Florida's property market. This analysis delves into how these contrasting leadership philosophies have yielded vastly divergent outcomes for the homeowners, investors, and industry professionals navigating America's two economic powerhouses.
As a veteran of three decades in real estate, I, Mark Bolender of RE/MAX Gateway, have personally witnessed and tracked the profound, often surprising, impacts of these policies on the ground, here in California, lending a unique perspective to this unfolding narrative. I have visited and followed Florida real estate for a long time also and I see trouble ahead there for values and lack of solutions. This is in my opinion.
1 Housing Policy Innovation: California's Production Focus vs. Florida's Tax Fixation
1.1 California's Groundbreaking Regulatory Reforms
Governor Newsom has pulled off a feat that eluded his predecessors for decades: a monumental transformation of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). This once-formidable barrier, notorious for enabling endless delays to housing projects through relentless litigation, has been decisively reformed. The newly enacted budget legislation ushers in the most significant overhaul of California's housing and environmental review laws in generations [1]. These sweeping reforms include critical CEQA exemptions for infill housing, high-speed rail facilities, utilities, broadband, community-serving facilities, wildfire prevention, and farmworker housing [1]. Moreover, local governments' rezoning efforts are now liberated from CEQA scrutiny when implementing approved housing elements, a move designed to dramatically accelerate site readiness [1].
The Permit Streamlining Act has been fortified, and crucial limitations have been imposed on certain Coastal Commission housing appeals [1]. Adding a layer of much-needed predictability, regulatory stability has been cemented by freezing residential building standards through 2031, with sensible exceptions for emergency, fire, and conservation updates, directly helping to rein in construction costs [1].
These changes are nothing short of a game-changer, effectively dismantling the single largest impediment to constructing environmentally sound housing in California's bustling urban centers [7]. For far too long, CEQA had been cynically wielded by NIMBYists to obstruct everything from essential apartment buildings to vital university expansions, often cloaked in dubious environmental concerns. The new legislation means that the vast majority of urban developers will no longer be bogged down by the arduous task of studying, predicting, and mitigating potential impacts on local traffic, air pollution, flora and fauna, noise levels, groundwater quality, and historical artifacts [7]. This is a seismic shift, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable development.
1.2 Florida's Single-Issue Tax Approach
In stark contrast, Governor DeSantis has largely anchored his housing strategy to a singular focus: property tax reduction [5]. His proposals include $1,000 rebates for homesteaded properties, designed to offset state-mandated school property taxes [10]. Furthermore, a planned 2026 constitutional amendment looms, promising to drastically slash or even entirely eliminate property taxes [2].
While such tax relief might offer some reprieve, it critically fails to address Florida’s real affordability barriers that prevent buyers from entering a market now flooded with inventory and declining prices. The core issue isn’t supply—Florida actually faces a glut of available homes with prices trending downward. Instead, potential homebuyers are being priced out by the triple burden of exorbitant HOA fees, skyrocketing insurance premiums, and punishing interest rates. Even with lower home prices and abundant inventory, families cannot qualify for mortgages or afford the carrying costs that now often exceed the mortgage payment itself. DeSantis’s tax-focused approach, while helpful, tragically overlooks these fundamental affordability barriers: without addressing the crushing monthly costs of HOA fees, insurance, and high borrowing rates, even significant tax reductions become insufficient to restore homeownership accessibility for working families.
2 Homelessness & Affordability Strategies
2.1 California's Comprehensive Housing Framework
Newsom's administration has unleashed a multi-pronged assault on California's homelessness crisis and its pervasive affordability challenges. This includes the impactful Homekey+ Program, which has already channeled a staggering $103 million to forge over 315 permanent supportive housing units, a lifeline for veterans and individuals grappling with homelessness [1]. The administration has also injected a dose of accountability, demanding that jurisdictions maintain compliant housing elements and embrace encampment policies aligned with state guidance to unlock crucial homelessness funding [1].
In a direct bid to ease the burden on everyday Californians, the Renters Tax Credit has been more than doubled, now offering up to $500 for qualified filers, a welcome relief subject to future appropriations [1]. And to ensure these policies have teeth, strengthened enforcement mechanisms empower both individuals and the Department of Housing and Community Development to pursue civil actions against non-compliant jurisdictions [1].
These bold policies are not just theoretical; they are demonstrably moving the needle. While homelessness surged nationally by over 18% in 2024, California, remarkably, managed to cap its increase at a mere 3%—a rate lower than 40 other states. Even more impressively, the state contained the growth of unsheltered homelessness to a minuscule 0.45%, a stark contrast to the national increase of nearly 7% [8]. California is fighting back, and the numbers are beginning to tell a compelling story.
2.2 Florida's Market-Dependent Approach
Florida, on the surface, boasts a significant triumph in reducing homelessness, with numbers plummeting by over 50% since their 2010 peak [8]. However, this success appears to be less a testament to proactive policy and more a fortunate byproduct of relatively lower housing costs compared to other states. Yet, beneath this veneer of success, concerning trends are beginning to surface. While Florida's homeless count dipped from over 27,000 in 2020 to just under 26,000 in 2022 during the initial two years of the pandemic [8], the relentless march of rising housing costs and unchecked population growth are flashing urgent warning signs about Florida's capacity to sustain these positive trajectories [8]. The stark reality remains: both states are wrestling with a severe dearth of affordable housing for their most vulnerable citizens. For every 100 extremely low-income families, there are a paltry 23 available units in Florida and a mere 24 in California [8].
Unlike California's hands-on, interventionist stance, Florida has largely placed its bets on the invisible hand of the market to address housing needs. This reliance, however, may prove woefully inadequate as affordability pressures continue to mount, potentially leaving many Floridians in a precarious position.
3 Tax Policy: Targeted Relief vs. Broad Cuts
3.1 California's Progressive Tax System
Governor Newsom has skillfully navigated the complexities of California's progressive tax structure, not only maintaining its core but also strategically deploying targeted relief where it matters most. In California, the wealthiest residents shoulder a significantly higher tax burden than the poorest, a cornerstone of its progressive system [8]. Yet, surprisingly, middle-class families in the Golden State often find their tax burden lighter than in dozens of other states, though Florida remains an exception [8]. For low-income families, California's more generous social safety net translates into a lower tax burden compared to their counterparts in Florida [8].
This nuanced approach has empowered California to sustain robust public services, a critical foundation for its communities, while simultaneously tackling affordability challenges through precise, surgical interventions rather than sweeping, indiscriminate tax cuts. It's a balancing act that aims to foster both economic dynamism and social equity.
3.2 Florida's Regressive Tax Structure
In the Sunshine State, Governor DeSantis has vigorously championed Florida's low-tax environment, a policy that, while appealing on the surface, carries significant regressive consequences. Florida's heavy reliance on sales and property taxes means its fiscal system disproportionately impacts the poor, placing a heavier burden on those least able to bear it [8]. Indeed, low-income families in Florida face a higher tax burden than their Californian counterparts [8]. This contributes to a sobering statistic: Florida ranks as the third-highest state in poverty rate across the nation, trailing only Washington, D.C., and California [8].
Despite the absence of a personal income tax, Florida's overall tax structure, by its very design, may inadvertently deepen inequality. The apparent taxpayer-friendly policies, when viewed through the lens of their real-world impact, reveal a system that can exacerbate the financial struggles of its most vulnerable citizens.
4 Insurance and Climate Challenges
4.1 California's Managed Climate Transition
Newsom has not shied away from the monumental task of addressing climate risks, instead implementing comprehensive strategies designed to maintain a steady hand on the insurance market. A staggering $52.3 billion has been earmarked to fortify the state against the inevitable impacts of climate change [8]. California has also blazed a trail, enacting the nation's first climate bill that mandates major corporations to unveil their entire carbon footprint [8]. Beyond financial commitments and legislative muscle, the state is strategically pursuing a managed retreat from its most high-risk areas, opting for coordinated, thoughtful planning over the chaotic whims of an unregulated market.
These proactive policies are not just about environmental stewardship; they are about providing a bedrock of certainty for insurers and developers alike. By planning for an orderly adaptation to the stark realities of climate change, California is building a more resilient future. Gavin Newsom works weekly, with the current insurance providers and the California Fair Plan in response to the recent fires which left a lot of devastated. He is not leaving us stranded.
.4.2 Florida's Insurance Crisis
In stark contrast, Governor DeSantis finds himself grappling with an escalating insurance catastrophe, a crisis that now casts a long, ominous shadow over Florida's entire property market. The state's insurance market is in a perilous freefall, with a growing exodus of major carriers abandoning the Sunshine State [8]. This mass withdrawal has sent premiums skyrocketing, effectively nullifying any perceived benefits from property tax reductions [8]. Disturbingly, there appears to be no cohesive, overarching strategy to confront the fundamental climate risks that are relentlessly driving this insurance availability crisis.
This unfolding disaster is more than just a financial headache; it represents an existential threat to Florida's real estate market. Without the bedrock of available and affordable insurance, the very possibility of mortgage financing evaporates, a scenario that could trigger a catastrophic collapse in property values across the state. The stakes could not be higher.
NOTE: Ron just lost the state of Florida another $250 Million on his Alligator Alcatraz idea which is now being evacuated by court order. That's $250 Million which could have went back to the tax payers there to help shore up condo buildings many of which are sinking.
He also sent buses and and many flights of immigrants to the Northeast which cost many millions of dollars just go make a politcal point. This money could have been spent on down payment assistance programs for new residents and or first time buyers. If that was his money, he would not be doing any of this anti-business stuff. Just look at the Disney stunt which scared away investors.
How many million did he spend on banning books which could have went to supplement insurance programs for the HOA's around Florida which are possibly going through bankruptcy.
5 Business Climate and Workforce Development
5.1 California's Talent Retention
Newsom's policies have proven to be a magnetic force, consistently drawing and retaining the highly skilled workers that California's economy thrives on. The Golden State remains a vibrant crucible of innovation, particularly in the technology and green energy sectors, a dynamism fueled by its exceptionally educated workforce [8]. Beyond economic incentives, California's steadfast protection of reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ protections serves as a powerful beacon, attracting a diverse and talented pool of professionals [8]. Crucially, sustained investments in education ensure that California's pipeline of skilled workers remains robust, even in the face of its notoriously high cost of living.
These interconnected factors are not mere footnotes; they are the very bedrock upon which California maintains its formidable competitive edge in the knowledge industries that drive economic growth and underpin its high-value real estate markets. It's a testament to a holistic approach that understands the symbiotic relationship between a thriving workforce and a flourishing economy.
5.2 Florida's Talent Challenges
In a striking contrast, Governor DeSantis's cultural policies have inadvertently created a turbulent headwind for Florida's workforce recruitment efforts. The state has found itself in the uncomfortable position of facing travel advisories and convention cancellations, direct consequences of laws restricting abortion rights and controversial school curriculums [8]. Accusations of hostility toward the LGBTQ+ community, women, people of color, and immigrants have cast a long shadow over Florida's image [8]. Adding to the drama, an ongoing, very public battle with Disney—a colossal source of jobs and revenue—over cultural issues has further muddied the waters [8].
NOTE: The American Civil Liberties Union has even issued stark travel advisories, warning that Florida's laws "represent a dangerous escalation in the attack on fundamental rights and freedoms" [8].
These escalating controversies are not just abstract political debates; they are tangible obstacles for businesses striving to recruit and retain diverse talent. This is particularly acute in critical sectors like education and healthcare, where emerging shortages threaten to undermine Florida's economic vitality. The state's cultural battles are, in essence, becoming economic battles.
6 Long-Term Outlook and Market Stability
6.1 California's Sustainable Growth Path
Newsom's policies are not just about immediate fixes; they are a strategic blueprint, meticulously designed to position California for enduring housing market stability. The foundational reforms are a bold endeavor to dismantle systemic barriers, ensuring that the Golden State can robustly meet the housing demands of both current and future generations [1]. Innovative, sustainable financing tools are being deployed, including a dynamic revolving fund engineered to reinvest equity from stabilized affordable housing into a fresh wave of new developments [1]. Furthermore, the CEQA VMT Mitigation Bank stands as a clever, optional compliance tool, empowering developers to fulfill their mitigation obligations by channeling funds into location-efficient affordable housing and critical infrastructure projects [1].
These groundbreaking innovations are more than just policies; they are catalysts, igniting a virtuous cycle of investment, production, and affordability. This cycle, in turn, fosters sustainable market conditions, steering California clear of the perilous boom-and-bust cycles that have historically plagued real estate markets. It's a vision for growth that is both ambitious and remarkably grounded.
6.2 Florida's Boom-Bust Risk
DeSantis's approach, while seemingly focused on growth, inadvertently introduces significant vulnerabilities that could leave Florida's real estate market precariously exposed. So, where is the growth, you ask. There's a palpable over-reliance on sheer population growth to fuel economic expansion, rather than cultivating genuine productivity improvements. This strategy, while effective in the short term, carries inherent risks. The state's insurance market, teetering on the brink of collapse, poses an existential threat to the entire housing finance system. Without stable and affordable insurance, the very foundation of property ownership begins to crumble.
Compounding these economic anxieties, Florida's cultural policies risk alienating the diverse talent pool essential for modern economic competitiveness. These interconnected factors coalesce to create substantial downside risks. Should the relentless influx of new residents falter, or if quality of life concerns begin to outweigh economic allure, Florida's real estate market could face a sharp and painful reversal. It's a high-stakes gamble, where the pursuit of rapid growth might inadvertently sow the seeds of future instability.
7 Conclusion: Divergent Visions, Divergent Outcomes
The contrasting leadership styles of Governors Newsom and DeSantis paint a vivid picture of fundamentally different philosophies regarding government's role in the housing market. Newsom, with a bold hand, has embraced active intervention, striving to correct market failures, accelerate housing production, and staunchly protect vulnerable residents. While California's housing costs remain a formidable challenge, the groundwork is being meticulously laid for sustainable improvement through comprehensive reforms that touch every facet of the housing ecosystem. It's a long game, but one with the potential for profound, lasting change.
DeSantis, conversely, has largely fixated on tax reduction, seemingly overlooking the critical underlying supply constraints and the burgeoning crises in insurance and workforce recruitment.
This approach, while offering a fleeting taste of short-term relief, critically fails to address the foundational challenges that threaten to destabilize Florida's real estate market in the long run.
For seasoned real estate professionals like myself, Mark Bolender of RE/MAX Gateway, and for homeowners and investors alike, these divergent paths offer crystal-clear lessons: a truly sustainable housing market demands a comprehensive, balanced approach that prioritizes production, protection, and unwavering stability. California's path, though marked by greater governmental involvement, holds the promise of more robust, long-term stability. Florida's more hands-off approach, while perhaps yielding quick gains, simultaneously cultivates significant vulnerabilities that could, in time, undermine the very future of its market.
As both states brace for economic uncertainty, escalating climate pressures, and shifting demographics, the coming years will serve as a crucible, testing the resilience and efficacy of these contrasting governance models. The outcomes will undoubtedly offer invaluable insights for housing policy across the nation, as America grapples with its own pressing affordability challenges.
For a consultation with Mark Bolender, please reach out to him. After 35 years in the real estate market, Mark is not only a competent broker but a walking encyclopedia of information. In addition, Mark studies AI and is incorporating it into his business, life and creative projects. Please also feel free to hire Mark to create a "Super AI Agent" for your business. Mark rises at 4 AM and goes to 7:00 PM 359 days a year. Yes, I need a vacation but there is so much to do and so little time. Ciao!
Mark Bolender, ABR
RE/MAX Gateway.
DRE:01065007.
Phone: 310-857-4956
Phone: 661-714-0510
Email: [email protected]
Listings: www.markbolender.net.
Resume: www.markbolender.me
Sources
- Governor Newsom signs into law groundbreaking reforms to build more housing, boost affordability: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/27/governor-newsom-signs-into-law-groundbreaking-reforms-to-build-more-housing-boost-affordability/
- Ron DeSantis Updates Florida on 2026 Plan for Property Tax Vote: https://www.floridapolitics.com/archives/643499-ron-desantis-updates-florida-on-2026-plan-for-property-tax-vote/
- Newsom-DeSantis debate: How California and Florida compare: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/newsom-desantis-debate-california-florida-18526227.php
- New in 2025: Building more homes, faster: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/01/10/new-in-2025-building-more-homes-faster/
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Signs 2025 Tax Bill into Law: https://www.wlrn.org/news/2024-05-09/florida-gov-ron-desantis-signs-2025-tax-bill-into-law
- In Debate With DeSantis, Newsom Can't Admit California's Policy Failures: https://reason.com/2023/12/01/in-debate-with-desantis-newsom-cant-admit-californias-policy-failures/
- No more CEQA for most urban housing development: https://www.calmatters.org/housing/2023/09/ceqa-housing-development-california/
- DeSantis vs. Newsom: a Scorecard: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/01/desantis-newsom-scorecard-00129524
- How major new housing reform will affect homebuilding in California: https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2023-09-27/how-major-new-housing-reform-will-affect-homebuilding-in-california
- Governor Ron DeSantis Proposes $1000 Property Tax Rebates for Florida Homeowners: https://www.flgov.com/2023/02/02/governor-ron-desantis-proposes-1000-property-tax-rebates-for-florida-homeowners/
