Buying a Home in Los Angeles or the Santa Clarita Valley: Should You Buy in 2026 or 2027?
Every month, I sit down with buyers who ask me the same question:
“Mark, should I buy a home in 2026, or would I be better off waiting until 2027?”
For anyone looking to move up or invest in Los Angeles or the Santa Clarita Valley, this is a critical decision. And the truth is, neighborhoods like Valencia, Saugus, Canyon Country, Newhall, Stevenson Ranch, Santa Monica (South), Westwood, and Woodland Hills all behave differently — so timing the market depends heavily on where and what you’re buying.
What Analysts Are Saying About 2026
Most forecasts suggest 2026 will be a transition year. Mortgage interest rates, which spiked in 2023–2024, are slowly coming down, but no one expects a freefall. At best, rates may drift into the low 6% range, with small adjustments of maybe a quarter point at a time.
For buyers in the $1M–$2M market, inventory will remain tight, especially for move-in-ready or turnkey homes. Insurance costs are rising across California, and that weighs heavily on older homes or those in high fire-risk areas like Canyon Country and Stevenson Ranch.
As I often tell clients, “2026 won’t be explosive, but it will be steady. Think modest appreciation of 2–4% in strong neighborhoods and continued multiple-offer situations for desirable homes.”
What Analysts Expect in 2027
Here’s where the outlook splits. Some predict that by 2027, rates could stabilize closer to historic norms — in the 5–5.5% range. That could bring more buyers into the market, improving affordability and creating stronger competition.
But others caution that higher insurance premiums, increasing property taxes, and slower job growth could temper demand. HOA fees are also expected to climb as associations recover from 2025–2026 expenses.
Still, luxury and near-luxury markets ($1M–$2M) are likely to remain resilient. Areas like the Westside, Stevenson Ranch, and Valencia should continue to see demand for quality homes.
As I often remind clients, “The shortage of well-priced, turnkey homes isn’t something we’ll solve in two years — or even three. Buyers will compete for the best homes no matter the year.”
What This Means for Buyers
Buying in 2026
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You avoid further cost increases on insurance and taxes.
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Inventory may be tighter, but desirable homes will still appear.
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Great if you want certainty and to secure your home before rate changes.
Buying in 2027
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Rates may be lower, expanding affordability and buyer competition.
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Risks include slower job growth and rising ownership costs.
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Best for those willing to wait, watch, and hold cash until conditions improve.
My Perspective
After decades of helping buyers across Los Angeles and the Santa Clarita Valley, I can say this with confidence: location matters far more than national averages.
Santa Monica doesn’t move like Canyon Country. Westwood isn’t Valencia. Each neighborhood has its own rhythm, its own price ceiling, and its own buyer demand.
And here’s my core advice: “The best time to buy isn’t when the market looks perfect on paper — it’s when your personal goals, your finances, and your dream neighborhood all line up.”
Bottom Line
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2026 offers steadiness, predictability, and the chance to lock in your home before costs rise further.
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2027 may bring slightly better rates and more options, but also carries greater uncertainty.
If you’re ready to explore your buying options, I’d be glad to help you craft a strategy that fits both your goals and the realities of today’s market.
Mark Bolender
RE/MAX Gateway | DRE License 01065007
Listings: www.markbolender.net
Resume: www.markbolender.me
Phone: 661-714-0510 / 310-857-4956
Email: [email protected]
