Gavin Newsom's California Real Estate Surges, Greg Abbott's Texas FLOPS

Part One of Two

Governor Gavin Newsom’s leadership of California's residential real estate market stands as a powerful testament to thoughtful, equity-driven governance—especially when juxtaposed with Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s approach. As the 2025 housing market evolves amid shifting economic realities, detailed data and policy analysis reveal Newsom's California not only weathered market turbulence with resilience but laid groundwork for long-term stability and opportunity. In contrast, Texas grapples with significant inventory surpluses, market softness, and fewer supportive programs, underscoring the clear leadership gap between the two states.

This article offers a comprehensive comparison of the two leadership styles through the lens of appreciation rates, cancellations, days on market, inventory levels, agent turnover, tax systems, and buyer assistance programs—elements that together reveal why California under Newsom emerges as the superior model for managing complex real estate markets today.

California’s Real Estate Market in Context: Stability Amid Change

California’s housing market entered 2025 with cautious optimism. The state’s median home price sat at an impressive $830,400, a figure that reflected only a modest decline of 0.84% year-over-year—remarkably resilient given national corrections. This statistic speaks volumes about the underlying strength Newsom’s policies have helped build. Unlike a steep crash or significant downturn, California’s market showed controlled correction and measured recovery.redfin

Mark Bolender, a residential real estate broker with over 30 years of experience in California, observes, “Newsom’s approach has helped create a stabilizing foundation in what could easily have been a volatile market. The numbers reflect a market that’s not just surviving but thoughtfully adapting.”

In Texas, the picture was less stable. The median home price hovered near $351,700, slipping 0.48%, but the drop masked deeper challenges. A surge in listings—nearly 192,302 homes—pushed inventory well beyond what the buying market could absorb, creating a pronounced imbalance. Homes sat longer on the market (about 58 days compared to California’s brisk 44) and price reductions were more frequent, signaling inhibited buyer enthusiasm and seller concessions.redfin

These contrasts highlight a fundamental difference: California’s market remains balanced and competitive, while Texas’s shows signs of oversupply and softness — one reason many Californians who once left for Texas are finding their way back, drawn by the state's backed-by-policy market stability.noradarealestate+1

Days on Market and Inventory Absorption: A Tale of Two Markets

While inventory levels increased in both states (California up 18.2%, Texas 18.8%), the markets have responded very differently. Nearly 120,000 homes for sale in California were being snapped up relatively quickly—an indicator of strong absorption. Texas’s swollen supply, on the other hand, has led to properties staying unsold longer, effectively strangling the market’s liquidity.redfin+1

Mark Bolender explains, “The shorter days on market in California point to buyer confidence underpinned by aggressive first-time buyer programs and streamlined housing development. Unfortunately, Texas lacks this level of intervention, visible in its sluggish sales pace.”

Cancellations and Price Cuts: Measuring Market Health

An uptick in cancellations is natural when markets shift, but the depth of rises and recoveries matter. California has maintained tighter cancellation rates; contract fallouts grew modestly by 1-2%, tempered by a stable demand created through Newsom’s first-time buyer assistance programs and housing reforms. Texas’s cancellation rate was noticeably higher—reflecting an oversold market where buyers hesitate, securing paperwork but pulling out under financial pressure or market uncertainty.gov.ca+3

The difference in price cuts mirrors this pattern. In Texas’s broader market, the pressure to reduce prices impacts seller confidence, agent commissions, and buyer perceptions, creating a vicious cycle difficult to break without strong policy leadership.republictitle+1

Agents on the Frontline: Attrition and New Entrants

The health of a real estate market is also visible in its workforce. Agents are often the first to feel shifts in market dynamics, and their numbers tell a story of stability or strain. California, despite a cooling nationwide market, has retained more agents with only a 5% drop in active membership—largely thanks to Newsom’s boost in housing confidence and access. The market's appeal to new entrants is growing: first-time agent licenses increased 7% as optimism rises for future transactions aided by policy reforms and an expanding homebuyer base.realtor+1

Conversely, Texas faced an 8% drop in licensed real estate agents, reflecting frustrations tied to the inventory glut, stagnant prices, and reduced commission opportunities. New agent registrations have stalled or even decreased, signaling long-term challenges for market vitality under Abbott’s governance.redfin+1

In the words of Mark Bolender, “Agent sentiment is a reliable barometer for the health of the market. California’s relatively steady agent base and rising new licenses signal optimism driven by smart, supportive leadership, something Texas clearly struggles with today.”

Property Tax Policy: Stability vs. Volatility

One of the starkest differences lies in taxation. California’s property tax system, guided by Proposition 13, caps annual tax increases at 1% of assessed value and limits reassessment frequency, creating predictability for homeowners and encouraging long-term ownership. Newsom expanded this stability with programs allowing seniors and disaster victims to transfer tax bases, supporting community retention and economic resilience.huschblackwell

Texas, with no state income tax, relies heavily on property taxes—often higher in rate, ranging from 1.6% to over 2%—calculated annually based on property valuations. This means taxes can fluctuate sharply year to year, burdening new buyers, retirees, and middle-income families. The volatility contrasts with California’s stability, making Newsom’s approach more favorable for sustained homeownership.zillow

Social Programs: Empowering First-Time Buyers

In California, an impressive array of first-time homebuyer assistance programs has flourished under Newsom. These include grants for down payments, low-interest loans, and evictions protections that encourage access and prevent displacement. Such targeted support opens doors for marginalized communities, effectively bridging the affordability gap even in such an expensive market.gov.ca+1

Texas’s limited programs lack the same scale or impact. With less state-led funding and a focus on deregulation rather than constructive aid, Abbott’s Texas misses opportunities to create equity in housing, especially as prices soften and buyers become more cautious.noradarealestate+1

Migration and Market Psychology: The Reversal of a Narrative

Newsom’s policies have helped flip longstanding migration trends. Where once the narrative focused on Californians fleeing expensive housing for Texas affordability, new data reveal many former residents returning, attracted by California’s commitment to a more balanced market and better social safety nets. Texas’s housing challenges have dimmed some of its appeal, particularly among younger buyers seeking stability and community support.managecasa+1

Conclusion: The Superior Leadership of Governor Newsom

Every measurable statistic—from absorption rates and cancellations, to agent turnover and taxation—paints a clear picture. Governed by Newsom, California’s residential real estate market is healthier, more stable, and poised for equitable growth. His leadership embraces complexity rather than avoidance, combining regulatory reform, social equity, and fiscal prudence.

Texas, while historically a magnet for migration and investment, now struggles with inventory gluts, lagging support programs, agent losses, and tax instability under Abbott’s more hands-off, deregulatory approach.

Mark Bolender summarizes, “Governor Newsom’s leadership is a model of forward-thinking governance in residential real estate. He has balanced reform with compassion, building a market that serves homeowners, agents, and communities alike. Texas, by contrast, risks falling behind without similar dedication and innovation.”

For those watching or living through this evolving real estate era, Gavin Newsom’s leadership offers an example of how proactive, inclusive policies can stabilize volatile markets and ensure opportunity. This leadership not only preserves home values but nurtures growth—making California a beacon of innovation and resilience in American housing policy.

This analysis is provided by Mark Bolender, a seasoned residential real estate broker in California with over 30 years of experience, offering expert insight into the evolving real estate landscapes of California and his personal observations and tracking of other state real estate opportunities. This article is Mark Bolender’s opinion and doesn’t represent the opinion of other agents or his companies.